Indicators Guide
Understanding Win Pronos predictions
Last updated: August 2026
📊 Overview
Win Pronos predictions include several indicators designed to give you a deep understanding of each opportunity, well beyond a simple probability.
🎯 Calculated Probability
Estimated probability that the event will occur, calculated 100% independently from bookmaker odds. It integrates all available match data through an in-depth analysis and calculation process covering every factor likely to influence the outcome of the event. Key point: this probability is never derived from or influenced by bookmaker odds. It represents an independent estimate of the outcome.
💰 Implied Odds
Calculated solely from our internal probability: Implied Odds = 1 ÷ Calculated Probability If the bookmaker's odds are higher than our implied odds, this signals a potential value bet.
📊 Baseline Probability (P50)
The median of simulations performed. Numerically identical to the Calculated Probability — presented from a statistical angle to confirm simulation consistency.
🔻 P10 — Worst-Case Scenario
Minimum estimated probability if several negative factors align simultaneously (last-minute injury, below-average performance, degraded conditions, etc.). Indicates the lower bound of the estimate. Crucial for assessing the risk of a bet.
🔺 P90 — Best-Case Scenario
Maximum estimated probability if several positive factors align simultaneously (exceptional performance from key players, ideal conditions, strong psychological momentum, etc.). Indicates the upper bound of the estimate and upside potential.
🛡️ Robustness
Measures how well the prediction holds up against the unexpected: • ROBUST: Very stable prediction even in the worst scenario. Solid bet. • MODERATE: Reasonably reliable prediction, with a margin of uncertainty. • FRAGILE: Volatile prediction. Extreme caution required.
🧠 Meta-Confidence
Assesses analysis reliability based on data quality and completeness: • SUPREME: Excellent data. Maximum confidence. • HIGH: Good quality data. High confidence. • MODERATE: Acceptable data with some gaps. • LOW: Limited data. Less reliable analysis. • MINIMAL: Very sparse data. Highly uncertain prediction.
📏 Estimation Reliability
Indicates what the calculation for this market is primarily based on: • HIGH: Observed frequencies + quantitative model • MEDIUM: Mix of observed data + analytical reasoning • LOW: Primarily qualitative reasoning
🔬 Layer 13 (GSAS)
Displays the three key values from stress test simulations (P10 / P50 / P90) presented together for a quick consistency check: • Baseline = P50 (calculated probability) • Worst-case = P10 (unfavorable scenario) • Best-case = P90 (favorable scenario)
💡 Comment
Summary of the key factors most influencing the prediction for this market. Allows you to quickly understand why the probability is at this level.
🔑 How to use these indicators?
1. Compare implied odds with bookmaker odds: if the bookmaker's odds exceed the implied odds, it's a potential value bet. 2. Check robustness: a ROBUST bet is inherently safer than a FRAGILE one, even at equal probability. 3. Consult Meta-Confidence: a high score means solid foundations. A low score calls for caution. 4. Check Estimation Reliability: HIGH means the calculation is based on solid data. LOW calls for extra caution on the prediction. 5. Look at the P10–P90 range: the narrower it is, the more precise the prediction. 6. Read the comment: it contextualizes the number and helps you understand the key match factors. These indicators are provided to give you a nuanced and transparent view, allowing you to make more informed decisions by understanding not only the most likely outcome, but also the risks, confidence level, and quality of the underlying data.
⚠️ Important reminder
These analyses are provided for informational purposes to inform your thinking. They do not constitute betting advice or a guarantee of results; you are responsible for your decisions.